Positive Events

[Lynx Shaman]

I was just curious how many of you have been getting positive events lately? In the last couple days, I've gotten like one fun event, a whole bunch of negative events, and a couple cycles where there were no events at all.

Do you automatically lose a cannon or warehouse each cycle if you go over a certain amount of them? Every time I build a warehouse, it's gone the next cycle.

[Rasteroid]

It may not always be a good idea to build tons of everything. The more buildings and stuff you have, the more events you will get hit with.


It does not get worse suddenly, at a certain number.. but each building you have adds to the chances of a disaster each turn in a linear fasion. So 11 warehouses is 10% worse than 10 warehouses.

[Rasteroid]

For interest's sake, here's the equation it determines random events with.

Ok, first, it takes random number 1-100.

25%: Meaningless event.
25%: Food rots.

50%: Real random events, starting with negatives.

First there is a 25% chance for theocrats to avoid bad luck. If they avoid negative luck with their theocrat bonus, Food rotting becomes a Meaningless event, a negative event becomes positive.

In negative events, there is a 1/3 chance of object eventdom, 2/3 chance of building.

For objects, if an object in a full array of your objects is selected, using a random number from 1-70, it will be stolen or blown up or whatever.

For buildings, a building selected in the same way using a random number from 1-80, there is a chance of negative events.

But if, say, a warehouse is selected, but it's raining, the warehouse won't burn down. Certain bad luck events will be prevented or avoided. The player then passes into positive events.

So ultimately if a player avoids the bad luck in negative events (or jah smiles upon a theocracy) the player then passes into positive events.

(The conclusion to note here is that less buildings gives more chance of positive events.)

In positive events, there's a 3/4 chance of a positive building event, and 1/4 chance of random excavation.

The building events may not have any result. (For example, if your refinery workers try to strike, but you're fascist, you quell them.) In that case, no event takes place.

[Lynx Shaman]

So if a real event occurs, it will always be a negative event, unless the weather patterns or buildings possessed would make the event impossible? Thus, any non-Theocrat who had a the maximum number of possible buildings and a decent amount of everything will always lose something unless they're rescued by the weather (assuming they get a real event)?

Just trying to understand the way it works better.

[jc]

I think it means it takes a list of your buildings:
Mine, Mine, Mine, Cannon, Warehouse, Refinery, Null, Null, Null, [etc]
And then picks a random number between 1 and 80 (as Rasteroid said)...
If it chooses 1, then it does the event for the Mine (your Mine collapsed!).
If it chooses 5, then it does the event for the Warehouse (but it's raining, so you avoid it).
If it chooses 79, it hasn't chosen your building, so you've avoided any negative events.

[Lynx Shaman]

What I meant was:

Assume you have at least one of each building, and two of each item or resource, plus more coal than your firepower. On a cloudy day for a non-Theocrat, there would be a 25% chance of a fun event, and a 75% chance of a negative event. Under such conditions, only a Theocrat would stand any chance of obtaining a positive event.

Is this scenario accurate?

[jc]

Not as far as I can tell.
25% chance food rots
25% chance nothing
50% chance of an event

If it selected "event" then:
1/3 chance items:
[1..70]
If you had 2 of each resource and item, that's 26 altogether, plus "more coal than your firepower" which I'll say means 13 Coal, for a total of 39 items.
So there's a 39/70 (56%) chance of having something go awry with your items, as the random number is from 1 to 70 and only affects your items if it happens to land within the array of items you actually have. If this chance fails, it moves on to positive event section.

2/3 chance buildings:
[1..80]
If you have every building built, you have a total of around 48.
So there's a 48/80 (60%) chance of having something go awry with your buildings. If this chance fails, it moves on to positive event selection.

Positive events:
2/3 building, 1/3 random excavation.

So in this case, your total chances are:
50% * (1/3) * (39/70) for bad item event = 9.28%
50% * (2/3) * (48/80) for bad building event = 20%
50% * (1/3) * (31/70) * (2/3) +
50% * (2/3) * (32/80) * (2/3) for good building event = 13.81%
50% * (1/3) * (31/70) * (1/3) +
50% * (2/3) * (32/80) * (1/3) for random excavation = 6.9%

Or overall:
Nothing: 25%
Food Rotting: 25%
Negative Item Event: 9%
Negative Building Event: 20%
Positive Building Event: 14%
Random Excavation: 7%

Total Negative Event (Including Rotting Food) : 54%
Total No Event: 25%
Total Positive Event : 21%

If you'd like, I could calculate this with Theocracy in mind, but it basically just makes them 40% (-25% of what it was) negative event, 35% (a bonus by however many percent you took away from negative events) postive event, as far as I can tell

[Rasteroid]

That's a good, accurate analysis JC.

It can't be refined much since there are so many constraints on each event, (ie. warehouses won't burn if it's rainy or stormy), but generally speaking I think it shows how you shouldn't be too destroyed by random events, even at full building capacity.

[jc]

I'm also not 100% accurate about number of buildings (I'm not sure about the Warehouse limit at TL14), and didn't take into account the weather at all (or things like government), which can change negative events into neutral ones.
(I think there ought to be some neutral events that get turned into good ones due to weather/government, too, perhaps?)

However, having a 54% chance of a negative event (or 29% chance if you don't have any Food to rot in the first place) is still really huge. Consider that in one day, you're asking for that chance four times... that's 100% - (71%^4) or approximately a 75% chance that you'll receive a negative event that day.

So that means people with full buildings generally have a negative event happen each day at least once... and as they'll probably have more than just two of each material, that number will be even higher.

Considering that some negative events have the potential to ruin more than just a day's worth of planning, it gets to be quite a struggle (for example, it might take you two days to earn the resources to make one Office Tower - if it then was destroyed, you're at a losing battle).

To counter this, perhaps you could add, for the buildings that can be destroyed by events (or even just any buildings at all, making people guess which can actually be destroyed!), a sort of "structural integrity" feature, which costs only one coal and one refined material (the non-DMND one, or if multiple types, the cheapest), in exchange for keeping the building safe from random-event destruction (even if just for one time).

I'd invest in that for my mines. Perhaps make it not affect warfare at all (or just stick the "reinforced" buildings in one set, and the unreinforced ones in the other, and have the nonreinforced ones twice as likely to be destroyed as the reinforced ones, similar to how the greenhouse is much more easily destroyed than any other buildings right now --- this might be a useful thing, for hoping to protect your more crucial buildings without having to go Technocrat when the only building worth protecting as a Technocrat is the Nuclear Plant )...

It's just an idea, and it still wouldn't affect other negative events, sadly, such as the windmill man turning you to anarchy... :/